View from overseas: World Cup preview

Story by Andrew Rogers

Andrew Rogers

June 1st 2006 Sunbury Health Clinic - London.

DJ: Mr. Rogers, this is the worst case I've seen in years, and I've been a practicing doctor since 1966.

AR: Fair enough Doctor Johnson. What is the prognosis, bottom line?

DJ: At best I would give you 4-5 weeks. In the worst case scenario you might never recover. Please listen Mr. Rogers, WCF (World Cup Fever) is a serious condition. Have you spoken to your company boss?

AR: I think I'll take my chances on a 20 yr old with a dodgy metatarsal and a mentally fragile coach who can't trust his long term partner or bosses. Now where's that prescription for the organic, health conscious Doritos, dips and beer?"

Surrey, UK (June 3, 2006) - Clearly I could be in better shape soccer fans, but I'll hang in there to be part of what most of the world consider to be the greatest show on earth, and with 2.3 billion fans expected to watch it's easy to see why.

In Europe and increasingly the US the World Cup is seen as an encompassing experience where everyone can get together, and enjoy the occasion in the knowledge that it is only a game…well kinda.

The wall chart is out, the groups draw and permutations have been analysed and I feel we could see a repeat of the 2002 final with a quirk of fate assisting Germany to the prize or at least the final.

Looking across the various geographical regions it is more patent than ever that there are no longer any games where a side can assume they can just turn up. Most teams have a star performer or a combined strength that must be respected or sides could run the risk of being dumped out of the tournament as illustrated by Portugal and France in 2002.

In Europe the contenders appear to be Germany, Holland and Italy. Germany as home nation has a considerable advantage, allied with tournament record that has seen them outside of the last 8 only once since their first triumph in 1954. Irrespective of any negative conjecture, the fact remains they can compete when it matters.

Holland have quality through out the side but historically lack the killer instinct. There is little to suggest this will change, but given the historical realities that go beyond my generation they will be extremely determined and motivated.

Italy can compete against any one and will not be intimidated by Brazil. The only real concern with regards to performance will be the fact that they basically have to play 3 ¼ final matches to get out of the group, this will take something out of them.

England has the caliber of players and experience to feel at ease against the best. However, as previously suggested on these hallowed pages, they need to be able to retain possession of the ball. Most goals seem to come from counter attacking play and set pieces at the moment.

The dividing line between winning and losing in the World Cup can be broken down into split seconds and inches. Had Sergio Conceicao's shot gone in off the inside of the post for Portugal versus' South Korea in 2002 the US would not have gone through. This time around I do not expect any of the sides from the Asia or Oceania region to make in-roads, but anything can happen and probably will.

The term "dark horses" seems to have been coined for the African nations competing in the World Cup. I have little or no time for notions that teams such as Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal were anything but accomplished sides with quality throughout the team. Accordingly, a little more should be expected from teams that so far have been congratulated for competing, and valiant failure. African football deserves better than this and anyone of the 6 competing teams can do some serious damage although inexperience could be a factor this time around.

South America- Brazil and Argentina again pose a strong challenge, although Argentina's chances are hindered by the quality of the opposition in their group. As for Brazil they are formidable, maybe unassailable?

The Spain 82 side was mesmerizing. I'm not sure if there has been a better international side, but this team like the 82 lineup could suffer from overconfidence and must be wary of getting sucker punched down a side alley with the world seemly at their feet.

The United States are in a group of very slow and painful death…in the desert with out any water. But with a stronger and more experienced roster than 2002 expectations are understandably high, but getting out of the group would be a success in itself.

Talking to Alexi Lalas last week, he brought sound judgment and experience to the National Team's World Cup debate;

"Would it be a failure to not get out of the group in 2006? Yes. Would it be the end of the world? Absolutely not, there are plenty of good teams that have bombed out in the first round."

Should the US not make it out of the group they would be in illustrious company. In 2002 alone Portugal, France and Argentina missed the cut.

And finally, I do wonder if the strain of World Cup fever in the US could potentially be the most deadly given the way Ruiz is playing and Plotlin is shooting in the MLS at the moment. At this rate could we see US soccer fans forcing the country into lock down come July 9th?

Andrew Rogers, contributes to USA Today, Gol TV and Four Four Two. He lives in Sunbury on Thames in England. Formerly the director of communications for the Long Island (N.Y.) Rough Riders, he is a UEFA 'B" license coach and plays semi-professionally with Spelthorne FC.